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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."